Will TikTok Still Dominate in 2030?

The Future of Social Commerce

TikTok has already reshaped the internet once.
It turned everyday creators into marketers, entertainment into advertising, and scrolling into shopping.

But as the platform approaches its second decade, the question facing brands, creators, and investors alike is: will TikTok still dominate in 2030?

At Somerce, we’ve spent the past five years building strategies around TikTok’s commerce ecosystem — from creator networks and GMV Max campaigns to Live Shopping and affiliate automation.
Here’s our take on where the next era is heading — and whether TikTok can stay at the top.

1. TikTok’s Shift from Social App to Commerce Engine

By 2030, TikTok will no longer just be a content platform — it will be a retail operating system.

The foundations are already in place:

• TikTok Shop, linking creators, brands and consumers through instant checkout
• Fulfilled by TikTok (FBT), mirroring Amazon’s logistics model
• GMV Max Ads, letting AI optimise for sales rather than clicks
• Affiliate Marketplace, transforming creators into performance marketers

Together, these features form a closed-loop commerce ecosystem that competitors like Instagram and YouTube are still struggling to replicate.

Somerce forecast: If growth continues, TikTok could account for 20–25% of UK DTC e-commerce transactions by 2030 — particularly in beauty, fashion, and wellness.

2. The Creator Economy Becomes the Retail Workforce

Creators have become TikTok’s greatest asset.
In the next five years, expect to see creator networks replace traditional sales teams.

TikTok’s evolving Creator Marketplace will integrate with brand catalogues and affiliate dashboards, allowing creators to host Lives, run campaigns, and earn continuous commissions based on GMV — all automated through AI.

The result: a distributed, performance-led retail model where influence directly equals sales.

“By 2030, creators won’t just promote products — they’ll own customer relationships.”
— Joe Yates, CEO, Somerce

3. The AI Layer Changes Everything

TikTok’s data advantage is unparalleled: it understands not just what people like, but why.

AI-driven recommendations will go far beyond the For You Page:

• Dynamic product recommendations within Lives
• AI co-hosts answering customer questions in real time
• Predictive analytics for brands, showing when to launch, discount or bundle

The more data brands feed TikTok, the better it will optimise pricing, placement, and creative sequencing — effectively becoming the world’s most intelligent retail partner.

Somerce insight: TikTok’s future growth will depend not on new users, but on deeper data.

4. Competition Will Intensify — But Culture Wins

Instagram, YouTube, and Amazon are all investing heavily in social commerce.
Each platform brings strengths:

• Instagram: Brand polish and integrated checkout
• YouTube: Long-form credibility and search intent
• Amazon: Trust, fulfilment and product range

But TikTok’s cultural velocity remains unmatched.
Its algorithm manufactures moments — fast, emotional, and viral — that turn interest into purchase within minutes.

Unless a competitor can replicate that mix of authenticity, entertainment and algorithmic discovery, TikTok’s cultural dominance will continue.

5. Regulation, Reputation and Resilience

TikTok’s biggest challenge may not be competition — it’s trust and compliance.
By 2030, stricter data laws, content moderation rules, and geopolitical scrutiny could reshape how TikTok operates globally.

Expect to see:

• Greater transparency around algorithmic decision-making
• Local data storage requirements in Europe
• Stricter advertising and creator disclosure standards

For brands, this will make working with compliant, verified agencies and partners — like Somerce — more critical than ever.

6. What Brands Should Do Now

TikTok will evolve, but the playbook remains the same: adapt early.

Key moves for 2025–2030:
✅ Build creator networks and affiliate programmes now — own your influencer data.
✅ Integrate TikTok Shop + FBT to future-proof fulfilment.
✅ Invest in Live commerce studios — the next frontier of brand storytelling.
✅ Use GMV Max Ads to let AI drive incremental ROI.
✅ Track both short-term GMV and long-term community metrics.

7. The Somerce View

TikTok may change shape — but its principles will define the decade ahead: authenticity, entertainment, and immediacy.

“In 2020, TikTok was an app.
In 2025, it became an economy.
By 2030, it will be infrastructure.”
— Joe Yates, Co-Founder, Somerce

Social commerce isn’t going away. It’s becoming the backbone of digital retail — and TikTok, with its fusion of culture and commerce, remains years ahead of its rivals.

The question isn’t whether TikTok will still dominate — it’s whether your brand will still be part of the story.

‍